The IPCC is now producing its 5th
Assessment Report, some of which is now in the public domain. See
In the First Assessment Report (FAR
1990), they were confident that humanity is causing global warming.
Fourth (AR4 2007) "Very
Fifth.. (AR5 2013) "Extremely
Oh, and "Global Warming" became "Climate
Change" along the way.
Meanwhile, their models diverge more and
more from reality.
Roy Spencer (www.DrRoySpencer.com) has
produced a graph showing the results of 73 climate models, as compared with
temperature anomalies measured by weather balloons and by satellite.
For the release dates of the Assessment
Reports, we have inserted arrows showing the divergence from reality, and
then used those data to show how IPCC's confidence grows while the models get